Lone Actor and Small-Group Mass Casualty Tactics in the Context of Major Sporting Events

The symbolic value, media visibility and perceived vulnerabilities of major sporting events make them prime targets for extremist activity. The most prevalent mass casualty tactics used against soft targets are explosives, firearms, and vehicle ramming attacks (VRA).

• Explosive devices have been the primary weapon used in attacks on sporting venues, comprising more than 85 percent of such incidents globally from 1970 to 2019.
• While explosive attacks are the most common tactic used against soft targets broadly, firearm attacks cause far more fatalities than any other tactic used by lone wolf or small group threat actors. Although enhanced security may prevent individuals from bringing a firearm into a stadium event, threat actors may attempt to evade these measures by using vantage points from high buildings overlooking an outdoor stadium or by targeting gathering areas outside of the stadium.
• Due to the low skill requirement and ease of acquiring a vehicle, VRAs have emerged as a commonly used tactic for lone threat actors. From January 2012 to December 2022, VRAs were the second most common attack tactic in the West against soft targets that resulted in four or more victims killed.

This white paper discusses how the threat to mass gatherings by lone wolf and small group actors remains high and is characterized by extremist threat actors who continue to adapt their methodologies in response to emerging technology and security responses to the threat they present.